Brazil
Brazil enters the week with macro stability but live fiscal questions. Copom held the Selic at 10.50% and reiterated data dependence, while the real firmed as a dovish Fed softened the dollar. Disinflation continues — IPCA eased to 4.2% — giving the central bank optionality without signalling imminent cuts. The dominant domestic story is the 2026 budget: Congress is weighing the primary target, and spread sensitivity, not arithmetic, is the risk. Externally, record agribusiness and iron-ore demand from China underpin the trade surplus. Net: resilient activity, anchored policy, political risk concentrated in fiscal credibility.
Economic data
Key developments · 24h
Copom statement reiterates data-dependent stance; no change to Selic at 10.50%.
Real firms 0.6% intraday as the dollar softens post-Fed.
Finance ministry defends 2026 primary target amid congressional pushback.
Vale confirms iron-ore shipment guidance; port operations normal.
IBGE: services activity beats, pointing to resilient Q2 demand.
Important news · by materiality
Fiscal-target debate dominates as Congress weighs 2026 budget
Agribusiness exports hit record on Chinese soybean demand
Petrobras dividend policy under review ahead of board meeting
Drought risk flagged for centre-west coffee belt
Trade overview
SRC · MDIC · 2025What people think
The market is treating fiscal noise as political theatre rather than a solvency question — a reasonable read while the primary target holds and external accounts stay strong. The asymmetry to watch is credibility: a clean budget vote likely compresses spreads, while a contested one would test the real’s recent firmness faster than the rate path would.
This is an interpretation of sourced events, not a forecast or recommendation.